Posts Tagged Jayhawk

Perry Ellis and the NBA and Kesha

Posted on: April 10th, 2015 by jayhawktalk No Comments

A coach once told me, “If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.” It makes sense, I suppose. Rarely does one’s basketball value simply stay at a perfect constant and, well, “practice makes perfect,” or whatever. But in economics, we learn about the principle of diminishing returns — adding more of one factor of production, while holding all others constant, will at some point yield lower returns. Age, for instance, creates such a diminishing return in basketball. Otherwise, MJ and Kobe would play until their deaths. Last, Kesha famously told us, “We R Who We R” [sic]. It’s close to Exodus 3:14 (I am who I am), but more fresh because it’s Kesha.

What does the coach, professor, and Kesha have to do with Perry Ellis’ value as a professional basketball prospect, you ask?

They all tell us he needs to declare for the NBA draft right now. Following his junior year.  And if I were him, I’d do it too.

Let’s take a look at the current state of the NBA draft.

There’s an adage that the NBA only drafts on “potential” these days. Crusty old KU fans in their bath robes reading the daily newspaper about Kelly Oubre going pro after his freshman season — when he only averaged 9 PPG — just doesn’t add up. Alas, he’s still a projected lottery pick. And it comes down to potential, right?

A look at how NBA teams approach a draft should include a review of risk tolerance. After all, teams generally get one shot (per round) at adding a new piece to the team. With the rookie wage scale in effect (contracts are more or less predetermined by draft slot), teams with a higher risk tolerance should take the “riskier” player because the contract will not impact the team’s bottom line. The contracts are short and team options do not need to be picked up if the pick doesn’t work out.

In other words, there’s little to no risk involved in taking a “risky” player, especially in the last half of the draft.

[I should stop and note that obviously GMs have lost their jobs over bad drafts. There's certainly risk associated with choosing the wrong guy in the first 10 picks. But for our purposes, we're not looking at the top 10 picks. Even the top 20 picks. We're looking at the bottom of the first round and into the second round (where contracts are not guaranteed at all)].

But what defines a risky player over a safe one? Is it age, intangibles, off-the-court issues, or measurables? It can be all of those things, but risk, at least to me, involves exposing yourself to the unknown. If you watch a player for three years in college do largely the same things, you have a pretty good idea of that player’s risk (and upside). On the other hand, if you watch a player for one year in college struggle at times, but show glimpses of all-world talent, that risk (and upside) is higher and more attractive for a later pick.

The unknown is intriguing. And it’s tempting. The known is boring.

Sure, some teams have lower risk tolerance, but they are rare. Teams that are already “built” may be looking for a program-type guy, a solid if unspectacular bench player, a reliable option that won’t rock the boat. Those teams are not very common, though. So we can expect that most teams are looking for upside, especially throughout the last half of the draft. The unknown is intriguing, after all.

Let’s bring this back to Perry Ellis.

Coach tells us if you’re not getting better you’re getting worse. I personally believe most scouts think Perry’s value to the NBA is already known. If he leaves now, he’ll likely be a second round pick. If he returns and plays at an all Big-12 level again (which is more or less a guarantee), he’ll still likely be a second round pick next year. As a result, his value is probably not getting better.

Kesha would say that he is who he is.

If Perry’s NBA draft value is not getting better, does that mean it’s getting worse? Maybe not in terms of draft slot – but in time value of money, one additional year as a professional, and one more year of learning and harnessing his craft in a way that will give him a lasting role in the pro ball and not as a college power forward? Yes. It will be getting worse.

As a result, Perry has hit a point of diminishing returns when it comes to his professional basketball value. Putting in more time and energy in college basketball will likely return less in the long run. Declaring for the NBA draft makes sense, even if it doesn’t work out in the NBA and he ends up playing professionally overseas for the next decade.

Just looking at the past two drafts, in 2013, 3 seniors were taken in the 1st round and 15 in the 2nd round. In 2014, 5 seniors were selected in the 1st round, and 12 in the second round. Even though it’s probably not fair, unless a senior is a late bloomer, he is most likely to be taken in the 2nd round. There are obviously tons of reasons for this, but one is certainly that the player’s value (and upside) is mostly known.

Perry may want a degree. He may want to chase a 4th Big 12 title ring and he may want to make a run in the NCAA tournament. He may want to go down as one of KU’s all time leading scorers. Hell, maybe he just loves college and doesn’t want to be a grownup yet. If any of those things are true, he’ll be back and it will make sense because that’s his personal motivation.

But if his motivation is a career in professional basketball, as a vast majority of high major basketball players generally is, he’ll be wise to look at the NBA draft this year and forgo his senior year at Kansas. After all, the clock has already started on his professional basketball career.

TiK ToK, if you will.

 

Photo Credit: CJOnline, Huffington Post

Episode 75 – NCAA Tournament Preview

Posted on: March 16th, 2015 by jayhawktalk No Comments

The NCAA Tournament is finally here. The guys get together to react to the Committee’s placement of KU as the #2 seed in the Midwest Region and the insane path that KU will have to take to get to that matchup with Kentucky in the Elite 8. There’s also a short recap of the Big 12 Tourney, a chat with New Mexico State reporter, Mark Rudi, and a look at KU’s pod — including that potential matchup with the Shockers.

Come on in, grab a beer, and enjoy a little Jayhawk Talk Podcast — Tourney edition!

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ROCK CHALK.

Episode 74 – The Postseason is Here

Posted on: March 9th, 2015 by jayhawktalk No Comments

Postseason basketball has arrived. The Jayhawks had a big week starting with an incredible comeback win against West Virginia to clinch the outright Big 12 title and then followed it up with a great game and effort in Norman without Perry, Brannen, and Cliff. The guys get together to talk about all of those things plus an update on Cliff, preview of the Big 12 Tournament in KC, and a look ahead at the Big Dance.

Come on in, grab a beer and let’s talk some postseason basketball. ROCK CHALK!

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Photo Credit: USA Today

Episode 73 – Roller Coaster Big 12 Finish

Posted on: March 2nd, 2015 by jayhawktalk No Comments

(AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

After a roller coaster week in the Big 12, the Jayhawks still remain in prime position to take home their 11th straight Big 12 Title. The guys get together to discuss the week’s happenings, talk a little Cliff Alexander and the NCAA, and look forward to the last week of the Big 12 regular season. Come on in, grab a beer, and enjoy a little Jayhawk Talk Podcast, MARCH edition!

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Thanks for listening and ROCK CHALK!

Episode 72 – Perry Dunks, Cliff, Big 12 Race, and CBS’ Sam Vecenie

Posted on: February 22nd, 2015 by jayhawktalk No Comments

Following an up and down week, the guys get back together to talk Perry Dunks, Cliff’s production, the Big 12 Race, Tourney Seeding, and a bunch of other nonsense, including what we think Perry should get for a tattoo. Also joined by CBS Sports’ Sam Vecenie, there is talk of Self’s usage of Cliff and Kelly and where KU fits on the national college basketball scene.

Come on in, grab a drink, and enjoy a little Jayhawk Talk Podcast.

REMINDER: The Jayhawk Talk Watch Party is THIS MONDAY, February 23 at Johnny’s P&L. We will have some free appetizers, drink specials, and giveaways. Come join us! The game starts at 8:00 and we’ll be there at 7:00. Rock Chalk!

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ROCK CHALK!

Episode 71 – Big 12 Championship Math and CBS Sports’ Matt Norlander

Posted on: February 15th, 2015 by jayhawktalk No Comments

The guys get together to talk about the games this past week, talk a little Big 12 Championship Math, and are joined for a good part of the show by CBS Sports’ Matt Norlander. You know Matt from his work on the CBS Eye on College Basketball Podcast as well as his work on cbssports.com. We talk Bill Self, what KU needs to do to get on the #1 seed line, and how this Bill Self team is winning in a different way from past Bill Self teams. We also talk Love Fool, old dudes in AFH, and Bob Hamilton’s Plumbing commercials.

Also, put the Jayhawk Talk Watch Party on your calendar: February 23, KU @ KSU, Johnny’s Tavern P&L.

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As always, thanks for listening, and ROCK CHALK!

Photo Credit: kusports.com

Episode 70 – The Big 12 Gets Interesting (Feat: Brian Hanni)

Posted on: February 8th, 2015 by jayhawktalk No Comments

The guys get back together to discuss the state of the Big 12 with the voice of the Texas Tech Red Raiders (and KU alum), Brian Hanni. They discuss the happenings of the week, preview the Tech and Baylor games, and talk about the club going up… on a Tuesday.

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Rock Chalk, friends.

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Photo Credit: KUSports.com

 

Episode 69 – Let’s Keep Winning!

Posted on: February 1st, 2015 by jayhawktalk No Comments

Episode 69, you guys. How about that. In this episode, the guys get together on Super Bowl Sunday to deliver their own prop bets for the big game — not that big game — the Big Monday game against Iowa State. They also recap the week, look forward to the next week, talk about some Big 12 stuff, and close with their own Super Bowl predictions…about Katy Perry’s hair.

Come on in, grab a beer, and enjoy a little “big game” edition of the Jayhawk Talk Podcast.

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ROCK CHALK!

Episode 67 – The Big 12 is hard

Posted on: January 18th, 2015 by jayhawktalk No Comments

The guys get together to talk about the OSU and ISU games this week, including their concerns with some of the decisions made in these games, be they crappy technical foul calls or decision to sit certain players. There’s revelry at the end regarding our dear friend, Kareem Rush’s budding R&B career. He’s no Redhead.

Come on in, grab a beer, and have a listen to the Jayhawk Talk Podcast.

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ROCK CHALK!

Photo Credit: WIBW, Bleacher Report

Episode 66 – I’m Frank Mason

Posted on: January 12th, 2015 by jayhawktalk No Comments

NSFW this time, but don’t blame us. Blame awesome KU rap songs that we can’t get enough of. In this episode, the guys talk Baylor/Tech and preview OSU/ISU. They also talk RedHead’s “Frank Mason” because it’s the best song we’ve heard in at least a week. There’s also talk on Carlton Bragg, Devonte’ returning, Christian scoring, and Beaty filling out a staff.

Come on in, grab a beer, and enjoy a little Jayhawk Talk Podcast.

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ROCK CHALK!

Photo Credit: Cooper Neill/Getty Images