Archive for the KU Basketball Category

Thoughts on KU, KSU matchup

Posted on: January 4th, 2012 by jayhawktalk No Comments
Jayhawk huddle

KU team will be ready tonight

Kansas will face off with in-state rival, Kansas State, tonight at Allen Fieldhouse. The “Sunflower Showdown” will be anything but sunny or flowery. I truly expect K-State to impose as much physicality on the game as they can muster. I think it’s a good strategy, and I also think it will be a great test for this KU team.

Bill Self likes to call conference play “big boy basketball.” I think this will be a big boy type of game, which has traditionally been an advantage for Self’s teams. Unfortunately this squad does not have the kind of front court depth to bang around on the post like recent teams. It also hasn’t quite shown that it has what it takes to play a physical game that is won or lost on the boards and in the hustle plays.

Robinson will be hounded every time he catches the ball. He is getting better at kicking the ball out when he feels the extra pressure. That will be especially important against K-State. Another thing the Wildcats are very good at is drawing fouls. Jamar Samuels and Thomas Gibson are among the top 20 in the nation at fouls drawn. Robinson cannot allow emotion or the physical nature of the game to get the best of him on the defensive end. He has to play smart so that he can stay on the floor. We’ll need him.

I also think this will be a big game for Withey. After being benched for much of the last game due to what Self described as a lack of effort, he will certainly be out to prove something. I look forward to him playing aggressive on the defensive end and attacking the boards on every shot. He doesn’t need to be a big part of the offense to have a tremendous impact on the game.

As for our guard play, I hope to see much more dribble penetration tonight. I especially want to see Elijah and Tyshawn drive the ball to the basket with a scorer’s mentality. If the dump pass in the post is wide open or if you get a defender to slide over leaving the wing open, then sure, pass the ball. But I’d like those two to really assert themselves off the dribble. It will take some pressure off of Thomas and potentially give him some more room to work and get some looks one-on-one. It would also be nice to improve on that awful 6-27 performance from 3-point range last game.

I know K-State is 11-1 and ranked #22 in the country now. I know they are the new darling in the Big XII, suddenly predicted to be in the discussion for a league title. I’m just not buying it. I think they play their butts off for a coach who is better at his job than most people think. But I just don’t think they are all that talented, and I think they might be exposed tonight.*

*Strange sidenote: You can basically take everything I said in the preceding paragraph and apply it to their football team too.

While I have a certain respect for guys that “play as a team” and are successful at overcoming talent differential by out-hustling opponents, I still don’t think this game will be close. I think the Fieldhouse will be rocking. I think K-State has our respect. And I think our players are starting to play a better brand of basketball. While it hasn’t shown up on the scoreboard just yet, you can definitely see improvement since that Davidson loss. The guys seem to be buying in and playing better. I predict that we overcome the bruising of the game and win by 13-15 points. Something like 78-64.

It probably won’t be the prettiest game, but it will be a lot of fun.

On a closing note, it will be @BradyMcCollough‘s last KU game for a long time. He’ll be in the stands as a fan for the first time since arriving in Kansas City. Give him your best.

Rock chalk!

Reflections on non-conference play

Posted on: January 2nd, 2012 by jayhawktalk No Comments
KU players in crimson

Top 5 in minutes through non-conference play

Expectations met

Through 13 non-conference basketball  games, the Jayhawks are 10-3. With the exception of the Davidson loss, I think most would say this team has lived up to expectations. It has two statement wins against top 15 teams in Ohio State and Georgetown. It lost two games to potential #1 tourney seeds in Kentucky and Duke. And for the most part, there are reasons to be optimistic entering Big XII play.

Reasons for optimism

For starters, our power forward might be early favorite to win the 2012 Naismith Award. Robinson has been playing like a star. Not since Wayne Simien has Kansas had a big man that meant more to his team.

While KU’s point guard play has been inconsistent at best, there have been signs of late that Tyshawn Taylor is turning the corner. His overall season numbers have been good — 15 points and 5 assists per game — and he’s played great defense. But from mid-November to mid-December, he was averaging over 6 turnovers a game. The good news is that since the beginning of Christmas break, he has averaged 6 assists and only 2 turnovers. Hopefully this trend can continue.

T-Rob, Taylor, and…

One thing this team has been missing is a consistent third option. For the most part, the “third option” has been somewhat of a group effort. The three guys that have a chance to be a more consistent #3 are Elijah, Conner, and Travis.

Elijah Johnson is averaging 10 points per game, but he has really struggled from 3-point range. Despite shooting 82 three pointers on the season (an average of over 6 a game), he has only made 30% of them.

Conner, on the other hand, is shooting over 40% from 3. While he has shot the ball fairly well from behind the arc, he has been a liability on defense. That said, Self has had to play him with starter’s minutes thus far (4th on the team in minutes) because he has really had no other 3-point threat.

Travis has been phenomenal on defense, but has also struggled to score the basketball at times. He has a great mid-range game, and I’d like to see him use it more. If he starts to get those 10-12 foot jumpers open, I think it will help the entire offense.

From a talent perspective, Elijah makes the most sense as a guy that should be making a bigger impact on the game for this team. He is incredibly athletic, but sometimes I think he forgets it. While Taylor uses his speed and athleticism seemingly every time he touches the ball, Elijah has turned too much into a spot shooter. I’d really like to see him attack the rim more. If he makes a couple easy baskets, perhaps it will help open up better looks from 3-point range as well.

Elijah Johnson taking man off the dribble

Like to see Elijah take his man off the dribble more

How opponents are going to play us

As a team, I’d like to see fewer 3-pointers taken. It is becoming more and more apparent that teams are willing to give us open shots from beyond the arc. They are crowding the paint to try to minimize Robinson’s impact, leaving our guards with a lot of room to operate. Unfortunately, we just have not made a team pay for this yet. As a team, KU is shooting .355 from deep, which ranks in the 120s in the NCAA. If some of those shots start going down, it will sure help free up some space for Robinson as opponents will have to respect the outside shot. Right now, they just don’t.

Improve the offense

This team struggles to score at times. I am sure Self is installing a lot of new plays over winter break to help jumpstart the team from an offensive perspective. Here are a couple of things I would focus on if I were coach:

Instead of settling for every open 3, it would be nice to design some set plays within the confines of the offense that are focused on ball screens and dribble penetration. Taylor is already so good at taking the ball off the dribble, I think the offense needs to start and end with him doing what he does best. I also like the idea of getting both Travis and Elijah a ball screen to let them get to the basket or pull up for that mid-range jumper.

Also, when Withey is playing strong and with a lot of energy, he can be a big part of the offense. He is actually one of the best passers on the team, and when the ball is moving on offense, he can be very useful dropping it to the post or kicking to the wing. He also gives you a few points from the offensive rebound position, which has been a struggle this year.

I would also like to see Kevin Young play a few more minutes per game. His biggest asset to this team is energy, and sometimes it can be contagious. He has shot the ball really well (currently .613 from the field), and what’s more, he’s taken good shots. It would be nice to see his average of 10 minutes per game get closer to 15.

Get that title

The team’s play has not deterred me from maintaining my position that KU will win the Big XII again this year. Likewise, I am not concerned with the hot starts from Baylor and Missouri. Both are very talented teams. But neither have been tested the way KU has so far. I also like our coaching advantage and home court advantage.

Speaking of home court advantage, while many have said KU has had it easy playing in the north division for so long, people fail to mention that those south teams have only had to come to Allen Fieldhouse once every few years. Now they will be forced to play in Allen every year, which should help even out the difficulty of schedule.

I still contend that KU will be a single-digit loss team this year. Barring injury, I think 14 Big XII victories is the worst this team will do.

I don’t know about you, but I’m pumped for Big XII play to begin.  Bring on those wildcats and let’s get this party started.

Still waiting for ‘Good Tyshawn’ to step up

Posted on: December 27th, 2011 by jayhawktalk No Comments
Taylor tries a circus shot

Taylor attempts another circus shot

I predicted before the season that the duo of Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson was going to comparable to Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, if not better.  I, like most people, saw such promise in Taylor’s game. A quick first step, good vision, and athleticism matched by very few in the college game.

And we all knew what Robinson could bring to the table. In my mind, both had ceilings that were higher than Cole and Sherron, and both were in a position to need good seasons for future basketball employment.

Of course, Robinson has been terrific. What’s more, he’s been incredibly consistent. He is a force down low and has been good at keeping himself on the court and relevant late in games. He has, thus far, produced a season better than Cole ever did.

But Taylor has not held up his end of the bargain.

He hasn’t been bad. In fact, he’s probably been the most productive guard in our lineup this year. Not that he’s had much competition.

But he hasn’t been great. And he definitely hasn’t been consistent.

It’s been said before, but the thing that’s so frustrating about watching Taylor is that you know he has the skills to be phenomenal. You’ve seen it in spurts.

He can get by his man whenever he wants to. It truly does not matter who is guarding him. He has an incredible first step and has built the strength to surge to the rim off the dribble. The problem for Taylor has always been what comes next. He tends to leave his feet at inopportune times, leaving him with the option to attempt a pass or a shot mid-air (often with no real commitment to either before take-off). The good news is that he’s often fouled. The bad news is he turns the ball over a lot.

His best asset is his speed, but it can also be his worst asset at times. He plays the game sped up, which gives him a super power most don’t have on the court. Except sometimes uses his power for bad instead of good.

I think this is what KU fans mean when we say “We need ‘Good Tyshawn’ today, not ‘Bad Tyshawn.’” You see Good Tyshawn when he uses all of his incredible talents for good — active on defense, smart distributor, getting to the basket under control.

And you know what happens when he uses them for bad. You see the one-handed passes off the dribble (the one thing I LOATHE from our guards), the circus shots that fail to draw rim, and the bullet passes to Withey that he couldn’t catch in a million years. You also see the obligatory swing pass that falls into the lap of Danny Manning on the bench. The common denominator to all of these errors usually starts and ends with playing sped up.

The funny part is, Tyshawn could be just as effective in the college game if he slowed down just a tiny bit. He doesn’t need to go 100% to get by most college guards. 80% would do just fine most of the time. And when he gets by the first guy, he need only trust his instincts just a little bit more. And I think his instincts need to come down to three options, in this order:

(1) Score the basketball as if you’re not going to get the foul call. If you do get the foul call, even better.

(2) Find the Post. If you see the post defenders drawing away from Robinson or Withey to contend your shot, find Robinson or Withey for an easy basket.

(3) Kick to the wing. This hasn’t been quite as effective this year, mostly because we don’t have that corner 3 threat that we’ve had in recent years. But it should still be open nearly every time Tyshawn gets to the rim.

At times, this KU team struggles to score. If teams are doing everything they can to shut down Robinson (good strategy), it should really be Tyshawn’s show. He is the only one on this team that has shown the ability to get the rim whenever he wants to, no matter what defense he is facing. And when Tyshawn is getting to the rim with ease, good things should happen (see above options).

Think back to the second half of the Kentucky game this year. Most people ridiculed Taylor for his 3-13 shooting performance, but without his penetration in the second half, KU might have lost that game by 25. He hit 15 of 17 free throws and did not have a turnover. He was our only offense at the time. It wasn’t pretty, but it was effective.

Certainly I understand the counterpoint that when Tyshawn drives the lane, throws up a prayer, and doesn’t draw a foul, it might as well go in the box score as a turnover. My response to that is when you have a 7-footer in Withey and Thomas Robinson (arguably the best rebounder in the NCAA), throwing a prayer off the backboard should get a put-back from time to time.

I still think this KU team is pretty good. In order to be great, though, it needs Good Tyshawn on a more consistent basis. Hopefully he can find it.

 

 

KU, Davidson by the numbers

Posted on: December 21st, 2011 by jayhawktalk No Comments

Some numbers that mattered for each player in Monday’s loss to Davidson. More bad than good this time around.

Thomas Robinson: 21 and 18
I just made up a new rule for this piece. If you get 20+ points and 15+ rebounds, you get two key stats. At this point I’m really starting to believe that Robinson is the best player in the country, and that Anthony Davis and the Kentucky frontline holding him to 12 and 11 (note: “holding” him to a double-double) is one of the more impressive defensive performances of the season. Obviously I watch more KU hoops than any other school, but no one has impressed as much as Robinson.

Tyshawn Taylor: 8 days
Taylor had a torn meniscus, played on it nine days ago, had surgery eight days ago, then decided he could play Monday. Let’s just straighten out two things here. First, this means that anything Kansas got from him was a bonus. By most medical logic, he’s out for that game and maybe one or two more. So getting 15 points and seven assists was great. If Elijah Johnson knocks down a couple more threes, we’re looking at a double-double. Solid performance from Taylor. If at this point you’re still upset with the five turnovers, I don’t know what to tell you. You should know what you’re getting from TT by now. Second thing this tells us is that Taylor is an absolute warrior, and has developed into the leader that Self needs him to be. It was pretty clear that Taylor wasn’t at full speed, but Self obviously has no faith in Naadir Tharpe (more on this later). Taylor at 70 percent, like I tweeted pregame, is still the team’s best lead guard. Apparently by a pretty wide margin.

Elijah Johnson: 3-10 3P FG
Johnson’s got a beautiful stroke. He’s got great rhythm as a catch-and-shoot guy, and when he’s off the dribble he’s got a nice, quick release. But for a guy who is as good at shooting as he is, Johnson goes cold an awful lot. I feel like EJ’s one of those irrational confidence shooters. If he hits one, he starts to think he’s going to hit everything, and he usually does. But if he misses a couple, it goes the exact opposite way. He starts to think too much about his shot, tries to correct mid-game, and it completely throws him off. He’s got worlds of talent. He’s just got to get out of his own way.

Travis Releford: 8 points
I like Releford. A lot. He’s pretty obviously the team’s go-to lockdown perimeter defender, and he’s athletic enough that in the break that he’s an offensive weapon. But for me he has to do more. Kansas can’t rely on Robinson and Taylor – and Johnson to a lesser degree – for all of the scoring, and Releford’s the next guy up. He can shoot (granted his shot is ungainly compared to Teahan or Johnson, but the numbers are there to back him up), and he’s able to get to the rack pretty consistently. If this team is going to succeed, it needs either Releford or the next guy on this list to develop into a double-figure scorer.

Jeff Withey: 16 minutes
Watched the game a couple times now, stared at the boxscore for a good long while, and I can’t figure out why Withey didn’t get more minutes. The only thing I can come up with is that Davidson is laden with guards and keeping Withey in the game meant Robinson had to guard the perimeter and when Robinson is in the process of going for 21 and 18, you just can’t risk him getting into foul trouble. That’s fair. But he’s still the best defender on the team, and if you extrapolate his numbers out to a 24-minute game, he’s looking at a 14-point, 6-board day, which is considerably more than Kansas got from Conner Teahan, who played the lion’s share of Withey’s minutes. I think I just unconsciously complimented Withey’s offense. I’m moving on.

Conner Teahan: 2-8 3P FG
If Teahan’s not hitting from outside, he cannot play 26 minutes. Plain and simple. This sounds like the argument people used to make against Brady Morningstar, but I was actually pro-Morningstar for most of his career. Morningstar brought a lot of other things to the table: great court vision, quality defense. He was like the guy who outworks everyone else on the rec center courts, that everyone else inevitably hates because hey, man, we’re just here to have some fun and jack up some shots and you’re standing really close to me. Teahan doesn’t have that. He’s too slow-footed on defense to guard a three, let alone an athletic one or two, and is more of a liability because of that then Robinson-outside-because-of-Withey ever would be. All that said, Bill Self is considerably smarter about basketball than I am.

Kevin Young: 0-1 FG
“What is this consistency you speak of?” – Kevin Young.
Young didn’t really say that. If you weren’t sure. But he might as well have. After a brilliant performance off the bench against Ohio State in 24 minutes, Young got 10 minutes against Davidson and didn’t do a damn thing with one of them. I believe it was the man who’s blog I’m borrowing who said he hoped Young would be a homeless-man’s Thomas Robinson. I concurred with that assessment. But he brought little energy and no offensive spark to the Jayhawks in his time on the floor Monday. Bad day for him.

Justin Wesley: 0-1 FG
I was never high on Wesley, so seeing him play at an uninspiring level hasn’t really floored me. I’d hoped he’d be a spark off the bench, and his athleticism that he showed off at Late Night the last couple seasons has been reason enough for some excitement, but this is still a guy who averaged one point and one rebound at Lamar University. There had to be a reason for it. I think it’s pretty clear now what it is. For all his limitless athleticism, Wesley isn’t a great basketball player. It’s like the difference between Kobe and LeBron. LeBron is a world-class athlete, maybe the best in the world right now. I honestly believe he could pick up pretty much any sport and be a star at it. He’s that good. Kobe is a basketball player. Not the biggest, strongest or fastest guy on the floor (don’t get me wrong, he’s still a great athlete), but he’s just got more basketball talent than anyone in the game. Wesley is like LeBron, in that he’s a phenomenal athlete. If he signed up to be a wide receiver, Charlie Weis would be able to do some serious damage with him. He’s just not much of a basketball player, unfortunately.

Naadir Tharpe: 3 minutes
Monday was pretty much a worst-case scenario for the Jayhawks. Going down early meant that Tyshawn Taylor wasn’t coming out of that game unless his knee flat-out quit on him. That said, I’m still surprised Tharpe only got three minutes. It’s been evident that Self doesn’t have a whole lot of faith in Tharpe over the last couple games, but you had to expect Taylor to be limited to about 25 minutes max – Self said pregame he didn’t want him going over 30, he wound up playing 33 – which would have meant Tharpe getting at least 10 minutes. Three, though? He never even got a chance to show what he could do. It wasn’t necessarily a bad day for Tharpe, just disappointing.

The Definitive Kevin Young Post

Posted on: December 13th, 2011 by jayhawktalk No Comments

“The Energizer Bunny”

His Community College coach, Reggie Howard, called him the “Quiet Assassin.” Loyola Marymount Head Coach Max Good called him the “Energizer Bunny.” Self called him “bouncy” and compared his skill set to Julian Wright.

So who exactly is Kevin Young?

You might remember him from the first game of the year. Against Towson, Young played 14 efficient minutes going 6-7 from the field with 13 points and 7 rebounds. A pretty impressive output for a guy playing his first official game in Allen Fieldhouse.

Kevin Young about to snag a rebound

Kevin Young goes for a rebound

More likely, you might remember him from the Ohio State game where he had a similar stat line (6-8 from the field, 14 points, and 4 rebounds) in 24 minutes of play. He also took two impressive charges and made the best assist of the game – faking a three pointer and delivering a bullet pass to Robinson for a timely dunk that “energized” the crowd to the loudest it was all game.

Sandwiched in between the Towson and Ohio State games were seven modest performances, where Young averaged only five minutes of playing time and had no significant statistical impact on the game.

Through nine games, Young has shown that with additional minutes comes additional output. So why hasn’t Self played him more?

When a player is beyond the seventh spot on Self’s depth chart, he’ll often come in for a few minutes, and on the first mistake, get pulled not to play much again the rest of the game. Young only has five turnovers on the entire season. His defense has been solid. His energy has been a spark off the bench. And he looks like a guy KU fans will quickly get behind for doing all the little things.

You have to think Young proved to Self that he deserves a longer leash after Saturday’s game. As Self put it, “I haven’t seen that, or if I have seen it, then certainly we’ve made a mistake by not playing him…But that was something today like his coming-out game.”

Perris High, Loyola-Marymount, Barstow C.C.

When Young was a senior at Perris High School (Calif.), he logged three triple-doubles. He averaged a double-double for the season. He grabbed 31 rebounds in a game – twice. At Loyola-Marymount, Young broke the freshman record for rebounds (224) and rebounds per game (7.2). He also broke LMU freshman records for blocked shots and steals.

After his sophomore season at LMU, Young enrolled at Barstow Community College to focus on academics. Once he got those back in line, he signed a grant-in-aid agreement to play for San Diego State. Before he was able to get on the Aztecs campus, the opportunity to play for Kansas arose and Young decommitted to Bill Self.

Steve Fisher vs. Bill Self

Young’s decision to break his grant-in-aid with SDSU in favor of Kansas became somewhat of a national story when Aztecs Head Coach, Steve Fisher, went straight to the media to complain. He told the San Diego Union-Tribune:

I’m disappointed that a young man who I am very fond of would not feel an obligation to honor an eight-month commitment. And I’m equally disappointed in a program and coach I’m very fond of to pursue a player who made an eight-month commitment.

Young had every right to decommit from SDSU as the grant-in-aid he signed did not bind him to the school the way a national letter of intent does. A player is only allowed to sign one letter of intent during his career, and Young had already exhausted that signature with Loyola-Marymount.

Fisher continued, “Unfortunately, the only people who suffer in this situation is us because we passed over three or four very talented players because we did honor our commitment (to Young).”

Interestingly, Self responded to Fisher by telling the Lawrence Journal World:

“I don’t blame coach Fisher for being disappointed at all because Kevin did commit to them…but Kevin also told them he wasn’t going to San Diego State before we recruited him, so we didn’t steal him from San Diego State by any stretch.”

Whether Self and Co. contacted Young while he was “committed” to SDSU is up for debate. Young states that he spoke with Assistant Coach Kurtis Townsend and expressed interest in coming to Kansas in May. Young said that Townsend told him to talk to Fisher before he took a visit to KU.  Once Young spoke with Fisher, he visited Kansas and committed. Whether Townsend contacted Young or Young contacted Townsend is unknown.

Kevin Young Dunking

Kevin Young throws down a dunk against Towson

It also doesn’t matter.

The coaching fraternity is a tight knit group. Self certainly doesn’t want to make a habit of pissing off his brethren. At the same time, Fisher came off as desperate with his comments. The letter of intent is a powerful tool for small schools in small conferences. In this instance, he could not rely on it.

I’d also be remiss not to mention that Fisher was of course fired from Michigan in 1997 when he was the at the helm of one of the biggest college basketball scandals in history. Under his watch, booster Ed Martin allegedly paid Michigan players hundreds of thousands of dollars. In short, Fisher has very little room to be telling off other coaches.

Quiet Assassin

Kevin Young has not said much this year. Perhaps he has made the effort to let his play do the talking. If that’s the case, his play was yelling as loud as the Allen Fieldhouse crowd was on Saturday. Self perhaps put it best when he said, “That’s the Kevin Young we thought we recruited. Maybe this will give him the confidence moving forward. We could use another weapon.”

Another weapon.

Or an assassin.

KU, tOSU by the numbers

Posted on: December 12th, 2011 by jayhawktalk No Comments

By @HailToOldKU

The more I write about hoops, the more you’ll come to know that I’m a numbers geek. Now that I’ve had a little time to comb through the box score and watch the game again, I’ve put together a few numbers that, at least for me, went a long way to define why they succeeded, and why they didn’t. What follows is my key numbers for all the Jayhawks who played.

Robinson:  7-8 FT. There’s plenty of numbers that stand out about Robinson, not the least of which is his 21 points. But that seemed like a gimme, so I’m going with the incredible improvement in his free throw shooting. He hit 39.5% as a freshman, 51% last year, and is now hitting at 71% this year. Credit Dooleybear for technique, but that much improvement is just a matter of repetition and Robinson is a gym rat.

Taylor: 13 assists, 1 torn meniscus. The fact that Taylor played, and played well, on a torn up knee is remarkable, especially considering how much of his game is predicated on his quickness and speed. Without him Kansas doesn’t win that game. Huge performance. What being a leader is all about.

Johnson: 5-7 3P. This one’s easy. Johnson’s been in a brutal slump, but he never stopped gunning. I like that. Really I think it’s the quickest way out when you’re struggling like that. Kansas needed him to play well to counter the Buckeyes’ superb guards, and he really stepped up.

Withey: 2 pts. Withey’s leap this year can pretty easily be likened to Aldrich’s jump between his freshman and sophomore year. The fact that he can be compared to Aldrich at all besides being a tall, thin white guy is a huge step in the right direction. Withey doesn’t need to score to be a force for Kansas, and while you’d hardly call him a force against tOSU, he gave KU 21 good minutes despite only hitting once from the field.

Releford: 2 steals. Nothing about the stat line really pops for Releford, but I’m going with steals because he was very solid defensively. He spent a lot of time on tOSU’s William Buford, who led them with 21, but needed 23 shots to do it. Compare that to Robinson’s 21, which came off of nine shots.

Teahan: 1-5 3P. The only Jayhawk who was off on Saturday. Him going cold from outside could have meant serious trouble if Johnson hadn’t stepped up and started raining.

Young: 14 points. What happened here? Young’s most notable stat over the last few games has been his remarkable foul-per-minute rate. (3 in 6 against the Beach). Saturday he played like someone who should average 15 minutes off the bench. And not foul out.

Wesley/Tharpe: 3 minutes combined. Self usually doesn’t go with anything less than an 8-man rotation, but he’s usually got the bench to go 10- or 11-deep easily.  Seems like he’s losing faith in Wesley (nine minutes Tuesday, two  Saturday) and has lost faith in Tharpe, who didn’t play at all Tuesday and posted a trillion (one minute, no stats) against the Buckeyes. Tharpe will have a chance to prove himself with Taylor going out, though.

More numbers are sure to follow. Rock chalk!

Robinson vs. Sullinger

Posted on: December 10th, 2011 by jayhawktalk No Comments

The following post is brought to you by @HailToOldKU, a guest blogger to Jayhawk-Talk. Follow him on twitter for more great KU basketball and football content.

The highlight of Saturday’s Ohio State-Kansas matchup – for me even beyond the fact that the No. 2 team is coming into the Fieldhouse in non-con in December – is that we’ll get to watch Thomas Robinson and Jared Sullinger go at it. Sullinger was upgraded to probable Friday, so all the reports that he was possibly going to miss time are now rendered irrelevant. It would’ve been tough to believe anyways, since you can be sure that Robinson and Sullinger both, for all the one-game-at-a-time clichés they’ll spit out in a press room, have been looking forward to this date.

These are, in my mind, the two best post players in America. Robinson has blown away pretty much all expectations in the early going, putting up 17.4 points and pulling down 12 rebounds per, and doing it – maybe most impressively – at a ridiculously efficient rate. He’s got an offensive rating of 110.8 for the year, which is actually better than what he posted last year playing less than half the minutes. So much for concerns of whether he could handle a higher workload. He’s a top-5 pick in the draft right now. ESPN’s Chad Ford has said he could, if he keeps going big the rest of the year, slip into the No. 1 spot if no one else blows them away.

All those nice things said, though, and he’s still got the biggest test of his career Saturday. Sullinger is a beast, a freak, a monster, a whatever-adjective-you-like-to-describe-a-player-that-is-super-human. While Robinson has exceeded expectations to post his numbers, Sullinger is putting up 19.1 points per (while using fewer possessions) and hauling down a little more than 10 rebounds. The matchup, on paper, is pretty even, with maybe a slight nod to Sullinger because of his insane 130.5 offensive rating.

Along with the similar bodies of work, they’ve got one elite opponent in common, Duke’s Mason Plumlee. I had a little time today, so I put together this simple table, comparing the stats of Robinson, Plumlee and Sullinger from their head-to-head meetings. Obviously, Saturday hasn’t happened yet.

 

Thomas Robinson

Mason Plumlee

Jared Sullinger
11/23 v Duke 12/10 v OSU 11/23 v KU 11/29 @ OSU 11/29 v Duke 12/10 v KU
Points

16

 -

17

16

21

 -
Boards

15

 -

12

8

8

 -
FG %

40

 -

50

58.3

57.1

 -
Off Rtg

108.8

 -

109.4

89.3

115.8

 -
Oreb%

11.9

 -

15

3.4

4

 -
Dreb%

37

 -

27

29.6

22.9

 -
Usage%

24.3

 -

27

28.1

26.6

 -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A quick briefing on the advanced stats I used:

  • Offensive Rating is the points per possession a player scores multiplied by 100. So Robinson, against Duke, scored 1.088 PPP, which is very good. As a ballpark figure 95 is about average, 100 is pretty good, and if you get above 105-107, you’re doing well. Sullinger’s 130 is just stupid good.
  • Offensive Rebound Percentage is simple. How many of the available offensive rebounds does he get when he’s on the floor.
  • Defensive Rebound Percentage: take Oreb and make it defensive boards.
  • Usage percentage is a really interesting stat to me. It measures, basically, how many of a teams possessions end in that players hands, be it a turnover or a shot, and gives credit back for offensive boards, which adds a possession.

For reference’s sake, Plumlee’s season numbers are significantly lower than Sullinger and Robinson’s. Plumlee averages 12 points and a shade under 10 rebounds, but he also uses significantly fewer possessions in Duke’s guard-heavy offense.

From the basic stats in that table, we don’t really glean anything that we can’t from the season figures. Robinson, of the three, is the best on the glass. Sullinger is the best offensive threat. That has played out so far.

The most notable statistic in the chart is Plumlee’s Offensive Rating against Ohio State. There’s a few factors that I’d bet played into that. First and foremost, Ohio State’s a better team than Duke. That much was obvious when they played. When you get your ass kicked like that, it’s just about impossible to put up great numbers. Second, Duke was six days off playing Kansas, and Plumlee had had a war with Robinson in the paint in that game, and had played two games in the two days before it as well. He probably wasn’t on the freshest of legs, even with almost a full week lay-off. Third, Sullinger’s style of play would, and did, abuse a guy like Plumlee, who’s more of a finesse post then either Robinson or Sullinger. Sullinger is built more like an offensive lineman than a basketball player, and despite losing some 20 pounds in the offseason, he’s still got another 25 on Plumlee and Robinson, who both weigh in at about 235. Playing against a load like that will beat you down, and it obviously did to Plumlee.

But there’s reason for encouragement, despite Sullinger beating up on Plumlee, whereas Plumlee and Robinson were pretty square. First, Robinson is stronger than Plumlee. You don’t need much more than the eye-test for this one. Are Robinson’s shoulders roughly the size of a 16-pound bowling ball?* Yes! He’s stronger than most, then. Also, most importantly, when Robinson and Sullinger squared off at summer camps, according to the people who were there, Robinson was as good or better.

*Pos-terisk! Yes, I know all bowling balls are the same size, but I felt like 16-pound made a better qualifier than the 8- or 9-pound balls that are always really embarrassing colors for cosmic bowling.

Here’s the rub, though. Even if Robinson wins the battle in the paint, say he holds Sullinger to 12 points and 8 rebounds with the help of WITHEY!!! That still doesn’t mean Kansas is going to win the game. Ohio State has the better supporting cast. It starts with Robinson winning inside, which is entirely possible, especially with Sullinger’s lingering back issues.

Bottom line: If I had to bet, it’s not on Kansas, not with the way Ohio State dismantled Duke. But if Robinson can eliminate the advantage Sullinger gives the Buckeyes, that’s a hell of a start.

 

2011-2012 Kansas Basketball Predictions

Posted on: November 12th, 2011 by jayhawktalk No Comments

Time for one of my favorite times of the year: way too early predictions! Yes, I’m one of those guys that likes to speak his mind on the team at the beginning of the season so that I can take credit (rare) for such brilliant foresight (or, you know, ignore that I wrote such a terrible prediction piece). While I have high expectations for the 2011-12 Kansas basketball team, I feel like I’m kind of alone this year.

Sure, we lost a ton of talent from last year. You’ve seen the numbers. Something like 60% of our scoring, 70% of our rebounding. 80% of our swag.  Nevermind, Tyshawn is still here. Regardless, we lost a lot of guys. But we’ve been through this before. And, like before, we return two absolute studs in T-Rob and Taylor.

I have already written at length about how I believe these two will be an even more dynamic duo than Cole and Sherron were.  I’m not going to get into that again, but what I will say is that we are still really talented. We have great leadership. And we still have a hell of a coach.

So without further adieu, allow me to give you 10 predictions for the season (**based on assumption that team stays relatively healthy**)

(1) Big 12 Champs! How can you bet against KU on this? You can’t. And neither did I. In fact, I even put my money where my mouth is, laying a bet down on KU at 7:4 odds to win the Big 12. For as much as people have hyped up Baylor and A&M and Texas (and to a lesser extent Missouri and Oklahoma State), I’m just not buying it.

(2) T-Rob is all-league and Tyshawn and Elijah are second-teamers. These three are going to be special to watch on the court together.

(3) We lose 4 games in the Big 12 and win the league outright.  I think the next closest team will be Oklahoma State followed closely by Baylor, Texas, and Texas A&M.

(4) We will lose a couple of games that we really should not lose. I believe we’ll be hyped for all of the big names, and I think we’ll perform well in those. But I think one possible drawback to this team will be focus (and just too much swagger), and therefore a less talented team may sneak up on us. It will be important for our team leaders to keep our guys mentally hungry for every single game.

(5) Regardless of what the talking heads say, KU will hang with Kentucky.  It may even go down to the last shot.  I think it’s a much lower scoring game than most will predict, so watch the over/under. Also, if they press like they have been early on, we will absolutely win the game. I just like our upperclassmen vs. their freshmen, no matter how talented they are. Huge stage for this early in the season, and I think we’ll be more ready for it.

(6) Tyshawn will be a lot of fun to watch. Sure, he’s going to have his “Tyshawn moments,” but I think he realizes how important this year is for him. He’s going to rise up to the challenge.

(7) Robinson is going to lead the NCAA in put-back dunks. COUNT ON IT. I also think he’ll average around 17 and 10 for the year.

(8) KU will be a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. And we’ll probably be in North Carolina’s bracket…

(9) I think we’ll run quite a bit of the 3 guard lineup with Tharpe on the floor with Taylor and Elijah. I think we’ll see Travis at the 4 a lot during this set as well. Assuming T-Rob is in the game with the other 4, it’s got to be one of the most athletic lineups in the country (and in KU history).

(10) I’m a believer in this group. I really do think the sky is the limit assuming we can stay healthy. We have Final Four talent and we’re only going to improve as the season goes on. I think we’re due for some good luck in the tournament, and this team might just have what it takes to build a run.

So there you have it. You won’t find any bigger KU realist than me. I’m always happy to call the team out and tell it like it is. I am not looking behind crimson and blue colored glasses. I really truly believe this team is underrated and extraordinarily talented. Just be patient. It’s not always going to be pretty. But it sure as hell is going to be fun.

ROCK CHALK!

Legends of the Phog

Posted on: September 28th, 2011 by jayhawktalk No Comments

I absolutely loved the Legends of the Phog.  Even the most casual of KU Basketball fans has to agree with me.  Sure, it was a glorified all-star game.  It’s clear these guys’ agents said not to play defense or run or get hurt.  It didn’t matter.  It was still a blast.  [Sidenote: Cole was the exception. He came to play some defense. He drew the ire of Selby multiple times for breaking up Selby's alley-oop attempts. It was kind of funny...]

By now you have all seen the replays of Pierce’s big 3 over Brandon Rush and Chalmers’ even bigger 3 to tie the game, so I won’t get into that.  It was a wonderfully scripted ending to a fun afternoon.  Hopefully the excitement of the ending will ensure that there will be more of these kinds of exhibitions in the future.

I do hope that in the future we can schedule it to make sure Roy comes back.  Though Self is probably close to passing him by now when it comes to impact on the program, Roy was absolutely the man when he was here.  He had his shortcomings and the way the marriage ended was nothing short of ugly.  But he’s still one of ours.

Some other guys missing that I would have liked to see include: Rex Walters, Jerod Haase, Jacque Vaughn, Jeff Boschee, and Matt Doherty. These guys have coaching gigs and this time of year is tough for them to get away. Also missed Drew Gooden, Kirk Hinrich, Raef LaFrentz, Russell Robinson, Keith Langford, Aaron Miles, and Adonis Jordan.

I hope we see more of these exhibitions.  The guys loved it.  Fans loved it.  Recruits love it.  Lawrence gets a nice bump economically, and KU looks great for making it a charity event.  It’s a no-brainer.

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